NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 47% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 5.1%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Coyotes by 2 points. With a -0.38 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Ducks in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Ducks. There is only a 0.48 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Kings are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Kings are playing 7 games, traveling 16631 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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According to Sportsline the Los Angeles Kings are +170 underdogs but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 23-27-5 the Kings are behind their money line projected win total of 24.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ goals as a slight favorite, then they have 17 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have won 38% of their road games and were expected to win 39%. At home they have a 46% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 51%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 4-2-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 2.8 wins. In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#17) in power rank, and they have managed to be even worse. In simulations where the Kings played every other team (neutral ice in playoffs) they won just 37.9% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #17 in the league back on 6/11.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average goal differential is -0.62 which ranks #30 in the league, but their rank based on points (per game) is #27. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #25 ranked team in goal differential in road games, vs #30 in home games. Based on goal differential, they are trending up. Their average goal differential in their past 5 games is +0.4 (#11 over this stretch).
OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|Situation||Goals||Goal%||Shots on Goal|
|All 55 Games||2.36 (#30)||8.3% (#29)||28.6 (#29)|
|Road||2.1 (#30)||7.3% (#30)||28.9 (#24)|
|Home||2.65 (#30)||9.4% (#23)||28.2 (#31)|
|Last 5 Games||3.4 (#7)||10.7% (#5)||31.8 (#21)|
DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):
|Situation||Goals Allowed||Save%||Shots Against|
|All||2.98 (#15)||90.6% (#11)||31.8 (#20)|
|Road||2.93 (#9)||91.1% (#6||32.9 (#22)|
|Home||3.04 (#23)||90% (#25)||30.5 (#15)|
|Last 5 Games||3 (#18)||90.3% (#20)||30.8 (#11)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Kings were projected for 91 points (average per simulation), and their projected points has been up and down this season. On 6/25 their projected points was up to 89.3 before dropping to 64 on 12/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 76.2%. The playoffs are not likely with their 3.4% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.7% (150/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #8 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 51% #3 Toughest
Kings’ Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected PTS||Playoff%||Champ||NHL Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Jonathan Quick||3.8||73% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #20)|
|Anze Kopitar||2.3||90% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #32)|
|Drew Doughty||1.4||97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #20)|
|Dustin Brown||1.7||62% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #34)|
|Ilya Kovalchuk||1.6||51% Own (Slightly Overvalued w/ Market Rank #38)|
|Jack Campbell||1.2||13% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #54)|