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NHL Money Line Parlay: Kings +150 at Buffalo and Maple Leafs -132 at Carolina

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Arizona Coyotes vs Boston Bruins

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bruins to win the game. The projected score is BOS 3.7 and ARI 2.2, with Boston winning 76% of the time. The moneyline for the Bruins is -179 which translates to 64 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Bruins have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. They have the large edge in units at +304 to -500 units. In these games the Bruins averaged 4 goals per game and the Coyotes 1.2.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o5.5 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Arizona Coyotes +150 2.5 2.2 38% 24% 1.2 (0 Wins)
Boston Bruins -179 3.0 3.7 62% 76% 4.0 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the moneylines and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the moneylines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Los Angeles Kings vs Buffalo Sabres

The simulations slightly favor the Kings who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Kings 2.7 and Sabres 2.5, with Los Angeles being given a 53% chance of winning. At -172 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Sabres a 63 percent chance of winning. In their last 5 matchups the Kings are 3-2. Neither team has turned a profit overall in these games. The Kings are at -32 and the Sabres are -33 against each other. The Sabres were +146 underdogs on average. In these games the Sabres averaged 3 goals per game and the Kings 2.8.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o5.5 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Los Angeles Kings +150 2.5 2.7 39% 53% 2.8 (3 Wins)
Buffalo Sabres -172 3.0 2.5 61% 47% 3.0 (2 Wins)

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Carolina Hurricanes

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Maple Leafs over the Hurricanes despite being on the road. The projected score is Maple Leafs 3.5 and Hurricanes 2.6, and Toronto is winning 65% of simulations. At -132 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Maple Leafs a 57 percent chance of winning. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Maple Leafs are 4-3. They have the large edge in units at +85 to -55. The average moneyline for the Maple Leafs was -90 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Maple Leafs averaged 3.7 and the Hurricanes 2.9 goals.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Maple Leafs -132 3.1 3.5 54% 65% 3.7 (4 Wins)
Carolina Hurricanes +110 2.9 2.6 46% 35% 2.9 (3 Wins)

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Vancouver Canucks vs Columbus Blue Jackets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Blue Jackets to win the game. The projected score is CLB 3.5 and VAN 2.5, with Columbus winning 69% of the time. The Blue Jackets are -200 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Canucks based on how the moneyline is moving. The Canucks are up in this matchup recently going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +410 to -250 units. In these games, the Canucks averaged 4 and the Blue Jackets 2.5 goals.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Vancouver Canucks +165 2.7 2.5 36% 31% 4.0 (3 Wins)
Columbus Blue Jackets -200 3.3 3.5 64% 69% 2.5 (1 Win)

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Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Capitals to win the game. The projected score is WAS 3.8 and DET 2.2, and Washington is winning 78% of simulations. The Capitals are -270 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The Capitals have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +64 to -180 units. In these games the Capitals averaged 3 goals per game and the Red Wings 2.1.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Detroit Red Wings +220 2.5 2.2 30% 22% 2.1 (2 Wins)
Washington Capitals -270 3.5 3.8 70% 78% 3.0 (5 Wins)

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Montreal Canadiens vs Minnesota Wild

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Wild to win the game. The projected score is MIN 3.7 and MON 2.4, with Minnesota winning 73% of the time. The Wild are -161 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Wild going 4-0. They have the large edge in units at +364 to -400 units. In these games the Wild averaged 5 goals per game and the Canadiens 1.5.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Montreal Canadiens +140 2.8 2.4 40% 27% 1.5 (0 Wins)
Minnesota Wild -161 3.2 3.7 60% 73% 5.0 (4 Wins)

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Ottawa Senators vs Nashville Predators

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Predators to win the game. The projected score is NSH 3.6 and OTT 2.4, and Nashville is winning 71% of the sims. At -270 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Predators a 73 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Predators have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1 and they have the large edge in profit at +73 to -165 units. In these games the Predators averaged 4 goals per game and the Senators 2.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Ottawa Senators +220 2.5 2.4 30% 29% 2.0 (1 Win)
Nashville Predators -270 3.5 3.6 70% 71% 4.0 (3 Wins)

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Florida Panthers vs St. Louis Blues

The odds favor the Blues, but the sims are solidly on the Blues. The projected score is STL 3.1 and FLA 2.8, and St. Louis is winning 56% of the sims. At -120 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Blues a 55 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Panthers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. They have the large edge in units at +239 to -229. The average moneyline for the Blues was -83 indicating they were slightly favored, on average. In these games, the Panthers averaged 4.2 and the Blues 3.2 goals.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Florida Panthers -103 2.9 2.8 48% 44% 4.2 (3 Wins)
St. Louis Blues -120 3.1 3.1 52% 56% 3.2 (1 Win)

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Chicago Blackhawks vs Winnipeg Jets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Jets to win the game. The projected score is WPG 3.8 and CHI 2.5, with Winnipeg winning 73% of the time. The Jets are -227 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 69 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Jets going 7-4. They have the large edge in units at +240 to -244 units. The average moneyline for the Blackhawks was +20 indicating they were slight underdogs, on average. In these games the Jets averaged 3.3 goals per game and the Blackhawks 2.8.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Chicago Blackhawks +185 2.6 2.5 34% 27% 2.8 (4 Wins)
Winnipeg Jets -227 3.4 3.8 66% 73% 3.3 (7 Wins)

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Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Avalanche to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is COL 3.1 and EDM 2.8, and Colorado is winning 56% of simulations. At -141 on the moneyline, Vegas gives the Avalanche a 59 percent chance of winning. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Oilers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record and they have the large edge in profit at +152 to -265 units. The Avalanche were +103 underdogs on average. In these games, the Oilers averaged 4 and the Avalanche 2.9 goals.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS o6 VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Edmonton Oilers +120 2.9 2.8 44% 44% 4.0 (5 Wins)
Colorado Avalanche -141 3.1 3.1 56% 56% 2.9 (2 Wins)

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